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Date: Thu, 31 May 2001 08:09:20 -0700 (PDT)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: kamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Daily Trader Summary for Thu, May 31, 2001
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Syncrasy - Weather for Business
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]      Syncrasy, LL=
C?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue     Suite 1314=
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  Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy=
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scribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com         Data last updated  Thursday, May =
31, 2001 at 09:36AM EST    Commentary last updated  Thursday, May 31, 2001 =
at 10:09AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote  =
  Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     To=
day: Summary Forecast for Thu, May 31, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Te=
mp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  =
(Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  69  +2  ERCOT(SP)  88  =
+2  FRCC(SE)  90  +1  MAAC(NE)  71  +3  MAIN(CTR)  64  +1  MAPP(HP)  66  NC=
  NPCC(NE)  61  -1  SERC(SE)  82  -1  SPP(SP)  76  -1  WSCC(NW)  82  -1  WS=
CC(RK)  77  NC  WSCC(SW)  90  +1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMA=
GE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   62 69 58 77 73 79 83 88 =
 Max    68 71 66 82 78 84 86 90  Min     57 66 52 67 67 74 78 83  Range  12=
 5 13 15 10 10 8 7  StD-P  3.2 1.7 4.1 3.7 2.6 3.4 2.5 2.0  Count  9 9 9 9 =
9 9 9 9    Day 1-5 discussion: **** Two more closed Lows will develop in th=
e Northern U.S. keeping the Western heat from spreading East.****  We remai=
n in an unusually amplified pattern going into June. This should continue t=
hrough and beyond the five day period. The only area of abnormal heat right=
 now is in the West where even the coastal areas of Northern California hit=
 the 90's yesterday. One more day of heat is expected before a moderate int=
ensity trough pushes inland shoving the ridge position into the Intermounta=
in West. As mentioned yesterday, I am not convinced of much cooling farther=
 South. It all may be temporary anyway as the ridge rebuilds to the West in=
 the 6-10 day period. Meanwhile, East of the ridge plenty of jet stream ene=
rgy moves out of Canada carving out another Mississippi Valley trough that =
heads East over the weekend. There will be an upper level closed low! that =
moves from Minnesota to the Eastern Lakes by early next week. This feature =
should contain more significant rainfall deep into the South and East as we=
ll as more unusually cool air for the North and East. Late in the period, s=
ome of the models bring a weaker surge of energy down from Canada carving o=
ut another trough over the Northern and Central Plains.  Tomorrow: Summary =
Forecast for Fri, Jun  1, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatil=
ity Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on ima=
ge to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  +1  ERCOT(SP)  90  +1  FRCC(SE) =
 86  NC  MAAC(NE)  69  -1  MAIN(CTR)  65  +2  MAPP(HP)  62  -1  NPCC(NE)  6=
6  +2  SERC(SE)  82  -1  SPP(SP)  81  +2  WSCC(NW)  71  -5  WSCC(RK)  82  +=
1  WSCC(SW)  86  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT=
  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   61 70 61 67 79 78 86 84  Max    68 75=
 69 74 83 83 89 87  Min     56 66 56 60 74 75 83 80  Range  12 8 13 14 9 8 =
6 7  StD-P  2.8 2.1 3.9 4.7 2.1 2.5 1.9 2.0  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3=
: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  2, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.=
   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Cl=
ick on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  64  -1  ERCOT(SP)  91  +3 =
 FRCC(SE)  87  +1  MAAC(NE)  76  +3  MAIN(CTR)  64  -2  MAPP(HP)  68  -2  N=
PCC(NE)  67  -2  SERC(SE)  83  +2  SPP(SP)  80  NC  WSCC(NW)  63  -2  WSCC(=
RK)  78  -2  WSCC(SW)  80  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]=
   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   60 70 64 57 80 77 86 79  Ma=
x    65 74 69 63 84 83 89 82  Min     56 65 60 51 75 74 84 77  Range  9 9 9=
 12 9 9 5 5  StD-P  2.8 3.3 2.8 4.6 2.6 3.0 2.3 1.6  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7=
   Day 4: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun  3, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Del=
ta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  63  -5  ERCOT(SP) =
 92  +2  FRCC(SE)  88  NC  MAAC(NE)  71  -1  MAIN(CTR)  66  -4  MAPP(HP)  6=
3  -3  NPCC(NE)  68  +1  SERC(SE)  82  -1  SPP(SP)  82  NC  WSCC(NW)  66  N=
C  WSCC(RK)  69  -4  WSCC(SW)  81  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE]=
 [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   59 65 61 61 70 76 8=
9 80  Max    65 74 68 66 75 82 92 82  Min     53 58 57 57 64 73 87 78  Rang=
e  11 16 11 9 11 9 5 3  StD-P  4.4 5.3 2.7 3.0 3.7 2.5 1.4 1.1  Count  6 6 =
6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun  4, 2001.  Syncrasy's Ch=
oice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  =
[IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  -5 =
 ERCOT(SP)  90  NC  FRCC(SE)  89  +1  MAAC(NE)  73  -3  MAIN(CTR)  64  -6  =
MAPP(HP)  61  -10  NPCC(NE)  67  -2  SERC(SE)  84  NC  SPP(SP)  78  -2  WSC=
C(NW)  70  +3  WSCC(RK)  71  -4  WSCC(SW)  82  +1      Range Standard Devia=
tion [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   59 66 5=
9 66 71 78 86 81  Max    64 75 68 70 77 84 88 83  Min     54 59 56 65 66 75=
 83 80  Range  10 15 13 6 11 9 5 4  StD-P  3.9 5.5 3.7 1.7 4.2 2.5 2.1 1.2 =
 Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5    Day 6-10 Discussion: I don't see a lot of change=
 to the pattern going forward to June 10 though the models do offer differi=
ng opinions. The revered MRF has done a 180 on its forecast. For days now, =
it has advertised a NE surge of the ridge and heat into the Eastern U.S. To=
day, it shows another deep trough in the East for Day 10 and is actually th=
e coldest looking of the models. I didnt accept the warm solution earlier, =
but I think this is too extreme. The markets may not agree with me as there=
 appears to be some price weakness today. On the other extreme we have the =
European model which I think brings the warm air too far North into the Pla=
ins but does acknowledge weak troughing in the NE. This brings me to the Ca=
nadian and U.S. Navy models which in my opinion hold the closest answer. I =
expect the setup to be a ridge in the inland West with a trough across the =
Great L! akes and NE. Most of the West will remain above normal and the Eas=
t below normal. The East will also continue to see the potential for above =
normal rains.  Day 6: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun  5, 2001.  Syncrasy's C=
hoice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE] =
 [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  67  -7=
  ERCOT(SP)  85  -4  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  73  -2  MAIN(CTR)  64  -10=
  MAPP(HP)  66  -7  NPCC(NE)  69  -2  SERC(SE)  82  -2  SPP(SP)  77  -6  WS=
CC(NW)  72  +4  WSCC(RK)  77  NC  WSCC(SW)  82  +2      Range Standard Devi=
ation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   62 72 =
61 68 79 78 82 81  Max    69 81 70 72 83 83 87 84  Min     54 64 58 66 76 7=
6 76 79  Range  16 17 12 6 7 8 11 5  StD-P  6.6 6.7 3.4 1.7 3.0 2.1 4.7 1.6=
  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun  6, 2001.  =
Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IM=
AGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(=
CTR)  66  -9  ERCOT(SP)  85  -4  FRCC(SE)  86  -2  MAAC(NE)  71  -5  MAIN(C=
TR)  69  -6  MAPP(HP)  72  -2  NPCC(NE)  68  -1  SERC(SE)  79  -5  SPP(SP) =
 80  -5  WSCC(NW)  73  +2  WSCC(RK)  79  +2  WSCC(SW)  82  +2      Range St=
andard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Me=
an   65 77 62 71 81 77 82 83  Max    77 87 69 73 84 80 88 86  Min     53 70=
 60 69 79 72 75 81  Range  24 17 9 4 5 8 13 4  StD-P  9.8 6.7 2.5 1.4 1.7 3=
.9 5.6 1.2  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun  =
7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][I=
MAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAG=
E]   ECAR(CTR)  68  +3  ERCOT(SP)  88  +7  FRCC(SE)  87  +8  MAAC(NE)  71  =
+14  MAIN(CTR)  73  +4  MAPP(HP)  74  -3  NPCC(NE)  68  +19  SERC(SE)  80  =
+4  SPP(SP)  83  -1  WSCC(NW)  72  +7  WSCC(RK)  79  -1  WSCC(SW)  82  +5  =
    Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE =
 SP  SW   Mean   68 79 60 72 82 76 83 83  Max    77 84 68 78 84 83 89 85  M=
in     60 75 56 69 80 67 77 81  Range  17 9 13 9 4 16 12 4  StD-P  6.4 3.1 =
3.9 3.0 1.4 7.0 5.0 1.2  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary Forecast f=
or Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix=
    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enla=
rge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  62  -10  ERCOT(SP)  79  -1  FRCC(SE)  74  -2  =
MAAC(NE)  55  -10  MAIN(CTR)  68  -6  MAPP(HP)  75  +1  NPCC(NE)  53  +1  S=
ERC(SE)  67  -10  SPP(SP)  80  -5  WSCC(NW)  65  +2  WSCC(RK)  81  +3  WSCC=
(SW)  79  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  N=
E  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   69 77 57 71 81 74 83 82  Max    71 78 62 78 =
83 82 89 86  Min     68 75 54 65 77 68 79 79  Range  3 3 8 13 6 13 9 6  StD=
-P  1.1 1.2 3.4 6.3 2.2 5.7 3.2 3.0  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summa=
ry Forecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Vola=
tility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on =
image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  69  -3  ERCOT(SP)  81  NC  FRCC(S=
E)  75  -2  MAAC(NE)  66  -3  MAIN(CTR)  74  +1  MAPP(HP)  75  -1  NPCC(NE)=
  61  +7  SERC(SE)  73  -5  SPP(SP)  82  -4  WSCC(NW)  63  NC  WSCC(RK)  75=
  -1  WSCC(SW)  79  +2      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg =
 CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   63 68 60 59 69 72 76 71  Max    72=
 75 63 63 80 73 81 79  Min     53 59 57 54 56 71 71 63  Range  19 15 6 9 24=
 3 10 16  StD-P  8.9 7.2 2.6 4.0 10.9 0.9 4.8 8.0  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  =
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